(This is part 2 of a 4 part series previewing the 2nd half for all four teams in the Central Division race. Part 1 on the Blackhawks was posted this morning, while the last two will be up before games faceoff on Tuesday night.)
The Preds have always been a very sneaky team. Most always assume that Nashville is a terrible hockey market, yet they usually do better than the Phoenixs and the Carolinas of the world (not saying much, but still something). A lot of people often forget about them when naming the best teams in the league, but they've made the playoffs the last 6 of the last 7 years, last year finally making the second round. Truth be told, before looking at the roster for this preview, I couldn't name more than 6 players on their roster (Weber, Suter, Tootoo, Rinne, Legwand, and Ryan Ellis) - and the Blues play them 6 times a year. And it's not like they have a big roster turnover every year. The Nashville Predators are the Jan Brady of the Central division.
Still, they're only 3 points back of the top spot in the league, and going into the Break, they were red hot, including two wins against the Blackhawks to leapfrog Chicago. How? That's a damn good question.
Nashville Predators
Currently: 30-16-4, 64 points, 27 ROW
Leading Scorer: Martin Erat (11-24-35)
Top Goaltender: Pekka Rinne (28-11-4, 4 shutouts, 2.36 GAA, .925 SV%)
Strengths: One word: goaltending. Pekka Rinne may be the most underrated netminder in the NHL. He's been a workhorse this year, tying Craig Anderson to lead the league in starts with 45 already. That may seem like a lot this early in the season, but if I were Barry Trotz, I'd probably ride the Finn as long as I could too. The man is a beast, and when he's on, he can steal a game against anyone. They also have probably the best defensive pairing in the league in Norris-candidate Shea Weber and underrated UFA-to-be Ryan Suter, along with the 2nd longest tenured coach in North American sports in the defensive minded Trotz. They also have the 2nd ranked power play at 22.5%, helped in no small part by Weber and Suter on the point. And once again, the Preds have been great at home posting a 16-7-3 mark in Nashville. (Get used to reading that - all four teams in this race are in the top 5 in the NHL in home winning percentage.) It's also worth nothing that the Preds have a 13-5-4 record in one goal games, the best out of the four, so they're battle tested. They also are a respectable 14-9-1 on the road, the only of the four to be over .500 in that category.
Weaknesses: Despite having two of the best blueliners in the West, Nashville still gives up 31 shots a game, good for 22nd in the league (and last in the division - yes more than even the BJs), which makes Rinne's numbers all the more impressive. They also only average 27.5 shots for a game, almost 4 full shots fewer than the closest of the other four. Other than that, they have a lot of balance in their scoring and PK, which is a nice way of saying it's mediocre. They rank within the middle third in the NHL in goals per game and penalty killing, although they only average 9.6 PIM/game, good for 4th fewest, which would fall all the way to 8.36 if you removed Jordin Tootoo's 62.
Second Half Catalyst: Shea Weber is amazing. He's very capable of putting his teammates on his back like Chris Pronger did to the Oilers in 2006, and to expect anything less would frankly be foolish. And as impressive as Zdeno Chara's 108.8 mph slapshot at the skill competition was, for my money Weber has the best in-game shot in hockey. Call me when Chara sends a puck through the netting in the fucking Olympics. (Or for that matter, breaks a guy's foot through their skate with a shot in a game, like Al MacInnis once did. But I digress.)
Trade Deadline Possibilities: According to Cap Geek, the Preds won't just have over $66 million before the salary ceiling by the deadline, they'll only be just over $7 million over the cap floor. However, outside of the year Peter Forsberg signed there, they don't have a history of breaking the bank on outside players. They do, however, have the 7th ranked prospect organization according to Hockey's Future, so they likely will have chips to play with should they want to add scoring help, or even a cheap backup netminder. The biggest question, however, is if Ryan Suter stays or goes. It's pretty odd that a team 3 point shy of the President's Trophy might be a seller, but over the Break Suter announced that he wouldn't sign an extension with Nashville before the deadline. So with over $7 million of cap space already promised to Weber and Rinne next season, it might be pretty difficult to re-sign the American Olympian. Should that be deemed the case, a team looking for defensive help such as Philly, Vancouver, Washington, or for a very steep price Chicago, might step up and try and poach Suter.
Predictions: Rinne is very much capable of carrying a team for an
entire postseason in the same fashion as Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek,
and J-S Gigure have in the past. But in order for him to do that, he's
going to get some rest. If his backup, Anders Lindback (or some veteran that could come pretty cheaply) only starts 5
games in the 2nd half like he did in the 1st, the big Finn may not even
make it to the playoffs. And the way this race is going, he's going to
have to do a lot better than 2-5, and in no way will his .898 SV% hold up with that many shots coming towards him. And if that offense doesn't start kicking into high gear, they'll likely finish 4th in the Central, with either the 6th or 7th seed in the West. But if Pekka Rinne is well rested going into the first round, watch out for the biggest sleeper in the league. Jan Brady could be out for some violent revenge.*
*Now THAT'D be a Brady Bunch movie I'd see in a heartbeat!
Next time on Play Like the Plagers: Talk Soft and Carry a Big 'Cock: Previewing the St. Louis Blues 2nd Half
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