Monday, January 30, 2012

Don't Toews Me, Bro: Previewing the Chicago Blackhawks 2nd Half

As every Blues fan is dying to tell you these days, the Bluenotes are only two points back of the top spot of the NHL.  Unfortunately, not only is that top spot being occupied by the (Fuck) Detroit Redwings, but we're also only a point up on Nashville and the Blackhawks.  And while you could do a little happy dance about the Hawks being in 4th place at the All-Star Break (I know I have), the truth is that any of the four top teams in the Central could very well come away with the President's Trophy, or at least the number one seed in the West, while two of the other three will probably have to faceoff in first round.  Needless to say, the stakes are high for four of the five Central division teams.

Also, Columbus gets to host next year's All-Star Game.  So, you know...good for them. 

To get ready for the epic struggle this second half chase will bring, let's take an in depth look at all four teams, starting with the team on the bottom of this four-way hate-fuck.

Chicago Blackhawks
Currently: 29-15-6, 64 points, 25 ROW (regulation/overtime wins, ie, non-shootout)
Leading Scorer: Marian Hossa (20-33-53)
Top Goalie: Corey Crawford (18-12-4, 0 shutouts, 2.86 GAA, .902 SV%)


Strengths: The Hawks can score like no one's business.  When they're completely healthy, they may have the best top 6 forwards of any team in the world, skill wise.  They're tied with Vancouver for most goals per game in the West at 3.16, and that number would probably be a bit higher with a healthy Patrick Sharp, not to mention if Patrick Kane weren't having such a shittastic year with only 11 goals (not that I'm complaining, mind you).  And just like the other three teams in the race, the Hawks are dynamite at home with an overall 19-6-4 record at the UC, which is good for the second best in the league.  They also lead the league in total goals scored at home with 99, 11 more than 2nd place Boston.  


Weaknesses: You know how bad the Blues power play has been?  The Blackhawks penalty kill has been that bad.  They sit at 28th at 77.9% shorthanded, which is only the tip of the iceberg that is the Hawks defensive struggles so far this year.  They rank 20th in the league with a 2.82 team GAA - in the West, only the Avs, Ducks, and Blue Jackets have given up more, and Edmonton is tied right there with them.  For a team that scores so much, the Indians are only a +18 goal differential.  They also give up just south of 30 shots a game, and it's gotten to the point with Coach Q almost refuses to play his 3rd blueline pairing late in games.  One has to assume that those minutes are bound to catch up with Keith and Seabrook sooner or later.  On top of that, the Hawks are only 10-9-2 on the road, and 20 of their final 32 games are away from the Madhouse.  

Second Half Catalyst: If his injury turns out to be less serious than he is, Jonathan Toews should be back soon to continue what may very well be a Hart Trophy season.  However, if the Blackhawks are going to win the Central, they're going to need the other half of their premiere bromance to pick up his game.  We all know about Kandy Kane's skill, and lately he's just run into a ton of bad luck.  But with his showcase in Ottawa over the Break, he may be ready to break out and finally start putting the biscuit in the basket, which is a necessity for the Hawks.  Mark my words: if Patrick Kane doesn't finish the season with more than 25 goals, the Chicago Blackhawks will not have home ice advantage in the first round.


Trade Deadline Possibilities: The Blackhawks will have a ton of cap space come February 27th - $22 million according to Cap Geek.com - and have some clear areas of need, namely a second line center (which even with the acquisition of Brendan Morrison, you'd have to think eventually goes to Sharp) and a number 3 defenseman - and if you think Stan Bowman is comfortable going into the playoffs with Crawford in the crease, you don't know who his daddy is.  Ownership has clearly favored the win-now mantra in the recent past, and the Blackhawks have the prospects to pull off a big one (the bottom two lines are filled with more rookies than Sigorny Weaver Susan Sarandon in Bull Durham), so I think it's likely we see the Hawks pursue a big name blueliner or netminder.  Given the nature of the race, it'd probably take a king's ransom to pry Ryan Suter out of Nashville, but don't count it out just yet. Some talks have linked the Hawks to Hal Gill, which...let's just say, as a Blues fan, I sincerely hope happens.  As for goaltending, there may not be much available, outside of the juicy/scary possibility of the Sabres wanting to sell off and rebuild.  It's unlikely in my opinion, but there have been rumblings that a trade out of Buffalo might be the best thing for Ryan Miller.  If Buffalo even thinks about shopping the Olympic MVP, the Blackhawks will be beating down the door to get a deal done, as well they should.  

Prediction: Between their veteran yet still youthful leadership, superior skill, quality coaching, and shittons of cap room to work with, the Blackhawks will thrive in the second half.  They may not be able fix all of their problems, however, and the amount of road games and minutes logged by their top players will hold them back enough to keep them from taking the division.  Still - and it hurts for me to type this - Chicago will finish 2nd in the Central and take the 4th seed and home ice in the first round.   


That said, fuck them and the coach's mustache they rode in on!  


Next time on Play Like the Plagers:  Ima Let You Finn-ish: Previewing the Nashville Predators 2nd Half

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