(This is part 3 of a 4 part series previewing the 2nd half for all
four teams in the Central Division race. Part 1 on the Blackhawks and Part 2 on the Predators are already up, while Detroit's will be up sometime tonight, though perhaps not until after their game.)
The Blues, of course, have been the surprise team in the league this year. That is, unless you've been paying close attention the last 3 years and have been following the rise of the organization's draft picks since the lockout. I only get to the Scottrade Center on precious few occasions, but one I did get to see a couple years ago was the season opener for the 2008-09 season against the Preds, which happened to be the first NHL game for T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, Roman Polak, and Alex Pietrangelo, and there was definitely an air that better times were slowly but surely on the way. Now with those four - along with David Backes and David Perron - finally becoming the players they were drafted to be (well, except for a certain Swedish center), it seems like a no-brainier that the Bluenotes are finally taking the league by storm. The Blues marketing department has had their share of klunkers as far as campaigns go (Whosoever idea it was to call us the fans the "Last Piece of the [Stanley Cup] Puzzle" last year should never be listened to on any topic ever.), but that season they had a series of commercials (that I can't seem to find - if I do, I'll link them) with team president John Davidson in a bar having a beer with a faceless Blues fan talking about the young players and rookies (there was one for Perron, Backes, Erik Johnson, and I think one for Oshie) that ended with the tag line "Come Watch Us Grow." It's been frustrating at times, no doubt, but it's been an absolute pleasure watching these players develop over 4+ years to become an overnight success.
Now, all of that out of the way, as great as this team has been playing ever since Hitchcock took over, this is still not a Stanley Cup team - at least not yet.
St. Louis Blues
Currently: 29-13-7, 65 points, 28 ROW
Leading Scorer: David Backes (16-21-37)
Top Goaltender(s): Jaroslav Halak (14-8-5, 4 shutouts, 2.04 GAA, .918 SV%); Brian Elliott (15-5-2, 5 shutouts, 1.69 GAA, .938 SV%)
Strengths: While it may not quite be locked up just yet, the only way Ken Hitchcock doesn't win the Jack Adams this year is if the Blues completely collapse in the 2nd half and either miss the playoffs or slip all the way to the 7 or 8 seed - and even then the Senators would have to keep playing over their heads the rest of the year. One of the biggest things holding the Baby Blues back the last few years was the coaching, IMHO. When the kids first started coming up, Andy Murray was infamous for stubbornly refusing to keep line combinations together even for entire periods, let alone let them stay together long enough to develop chemistry. It was also very easy for one of the young guns to fall into his 4th line doghouse, otherwise known as Bergie's Room. After Murray was fired, Davis Payne had a history with many of the younger players, having coached many of them in either the AHL or the ECHL, but overtime it became clear that he lacked the big league experience needed to reign in his veteran troops or game plan against the top teams in the West. Ever since The 'Cock took over, however, everything has come together (other than the power play, but we'll get to that). The Halak-Elliott netminding tandem has been dominate, but the defense in front of them has been equally impressive, leading the league in both team GAA with 1.96 and shots on goal against per game at 26.2. The Vezina race will probably come down to Henrik Lundqvist, Tim Thomas, and Pekka Rinne, but Jaro and Ells splitting the Jennings Trophy is a very distinct possibility. On top of that, the Blues sport the best home record in the NHL with a 21-3-4 mark. We also have an 8-0-2 record against Eastern conference teams, the NHL equivalent of extra credit questions, since points dropped won't go to the teams you're chasing. In 5-on-5 play this year, we're a +27 goal differential, behind on Detroit and Boston (at a staggering +52!).
Weaknesses: Two words, and they rhyme with "Flower Clay." Our power play ranks 28th in the league at a pretty pitiful 13.4%, and at times this year has had trouble even keeping the puck in the offensive zone, let alone set up quality shots. When Hitch took over, he infamously said that he could fix the power play in "one practice." While there have been stretches that looked like it may have started to turn the corner, they have been few and far between. Hopefully they had that "One Practice" over the Break. But even aside from the PP, the Blues offense has been less than stellar, averaging 2.51 goals/game, good for 20th. And with as good as the team defense has been under Hitchcock, the Blues 19th-ranked penalty kill at 81.7% is pretty disappointing. And while the Blues have a well deserved reputation as a physical team that initiates the hitting, we have had a bad habit lately of taking stupid retaliatory penalties (overall, the Blues rank 25th in the league in PIM/game at 13.3). I have absolutely no problem with sticking up for your teammates and imposing your physical will on your opponent, but the situation has to be appropriate, and that's something the Blues will definitely have to learn by playoff time, where an ill-timed penalty can easily end your season.
Second Half Catalyst: The Blues have trouble scoring goals. Also, bears shit in the woods (except for Louie, he just drops shit bombs from the top of the Scottrade Center - ask the kids at Game Time). Assuming that that need won't be addressed this year via trade, which is looking less likely by the day, we're going to need David Perron to start scoring more goals. It's great to see Frenchie back on the ice after all that time off, and he came back strong. But he only has 4 goals in 24 games, to go with 17 assists. He plays with a great energy, and his chemistry with Oshie is nearly back to where it was at the beginning of last season, but on a team where scoring is scarce, his is a spot where a point per game needs to be the minimum. He has the skill, and it's not like he looks lost out there most night, like a certain Swedish 2nd line center that also needs to start producing more, but the bottom line is wee need goals from David Perron to keep up with the other teams in the Central.
Trade Deadline Possibilities: Doug Armstrong has shown a fantastic knack for pulling off an under the radar, low-risk/high-reward move both in season and in the offseason that so far have nearly all paid off to an extent (Vladimir Sobotka, the Erik Johnson Trade, Kris Russell, Jason Arnott, and oh yeah Brian Elliot). One can only imagine what kind of larceny Army could pull off with a full budget from a settled ownership situation. The problem is that the sale of the team likely won't be finalized until after the trade deadline, if recent reports of "mid-March" are to believed (though with the track record on that front so far this year, that may mean more like early August). To complicate matters more, this morning it was reported that the Devils will likely hold on to Zach Parise for the rest of the year, despite his pending free agency and the organization's severe financial troubles. That would put seem to significantly raise the asking price for Anaheim and/or Columbus, should those teams choose to shop their stars. More still, although adding Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, or Rick Nash would immediately make them the team's top offensive player, the Blues are in less need of another big power forward (unless Chris Stewart is part of such a deal) than they are of a skilled sniper, meaning the best acquisition would be reigning Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry, who would NOT come cheap, if at all. While we may see the Blues be active this summer in the free agent market after re-signing Perron, Oshie, Jackman, and Berglund (or...maybe not on the last one), it's looking more and more likely that we'll be standing pat at the Deadline this year. Should the sale go through early, however, and Tom Stillman wants to make a big splash right away, the Blues will have over $66 million of cap space to work with.
Predictions: While we obviously need more scoring, offense takes games off. But defense and goaltending never take nights off. As such, despite our large number of road games in the second half, the Blues will continue to contend for the top spot in the Central and the West. However, with a big time sniper at the deadline looking pretty unlikely at this time, it'll be hard to keep up with Chicago and Detroit. The Blues will finish 3rd in the Central and get the unfortunate draw of another Central division matchup in the first round without home ice advantage against the Blackhawks. That's not to say that we couldn't win such a series, but it would be a battle to say the least.
Next time on Play Like the Plagers: The Red Menace: Previewing the Detroit Redwings 2nd Half.
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